Monday, July 13, 2009

NOTE FROM LEONARD

We've previously featured articles on the current recession (some experts are already calling the country's economic woes a "depression"), but now comes our esteemed Benson Newsletter Editor, Jeff Fisher, with a new take on what he calls "Recession-Proof Gambling." The key is knowing what your "worst-case scenario" is for each method you are playing, then recognizing how to deal with it. His viewpoints are enlightening.

As I've said a number of times in this column and elsewhere, if you know how to win consistently at any "gambling" game, then you've really taken the gamble out of gambling. A recession or other outside influences does NOT influence your ability to continue to make money in casinos and even helps to generate more comps than you could previously.

As long as you always follow the departure rules for any of our systems you can never drown in the addiction called "compulsive gambling." You will always have to stop on the days that you can't seem to win, but the rules invariably provide a way to stop before you lose a lot.

Jeff is referring to this subject in his "Recession-Proof Gambling" article. Be sure to read it carefully.

RECESSION PROOF GAMBLING by Jeff Fisher

In gambling, everyone wants to keep their losses low and profits consistent. Why not? It only makes good gambling and business sense. But that's easier said than done. Up to now, the Benson Company has controlled your losses by strict adherence to your money management and departure rules. This issue I would like to focus on departure rules only.

I know you've heard it a hundred times before. That is, all previous Benson systems and Newsletters have stressed the absolute importance of departure rules. It is the key to the player's math. That is, departure rules are a powerful weapon to controlling the built-in negative expectation of each casino game.

Leonard says it best, "You can miss a bet from time to time, mess up the strategy once in a while, but to win in the long run you must not break your departure rules."

He's right. And we've discussed this many times before in the Newsletter. Joe even discusses it in his "Winning and Losing" article on page 4 of this very issue. Bottom line, there are four possible outcomes every time you gamble: 1) You can win a lot. 2) You can win a little. 3) You can lose a little. 4) You can lose a lot. If you eliminate "losing a lot" from these four outcomes then two out of the three are winners. Departure rules are key to removing "losing a lot" from your play.

That said, everything so far is an introduction to why I wrote this article: Recession Proof Gambling. And in order to understand how to "recession proof" your play, you need a whole new look at what we mean by "departure rules." Let me explain.

I was introduced to the Benson Company in 1993 with Playing Craps as a Profession. I had played throughout the 1980s in Atlantic City but I never heard the word "depart" until I attended Leonard's seminar. The only word I knew was "attack"! Anyway, Leonard showed me and a lot of other gamblers that there was a middle ground to our play. That is, there was nothing wrong with winning a little and accepting small losses as long as your departure rules kept you away from losing a lot. It is the time-proven approach of "hit and run."

But even with the original departure rules, there were times I found myself "losing too much" for my liking. With Playing Craps as a Profession, if I hit the switch from the don't side to the do side, I could lose half a buy-in with one shooter. Although this did not happen often, it introduced "losing too much" into the overall picture.

During the last 10 years I have looked for more conservative playing strategies to offset "losing too much." I did not trust the departure rules alone to eliminate this outcome. I felt the departure rules needed the support of these conservative plays to keep me within the three desired outcomes. Then about six months ago, I realized that there might be another way to eliminate both "losing a lot" and "losing too much" from my play. I realized I didn't need the conservative strategies. I could do it with just the departure rules. All I needed was a different approach to the original departure rules.

Isn't the worst-case scenario responsible for "losing too much"? That's the Achilles heel to our gambling. In Playing Craps as a Profession, if I had limited my play after encountering the switch, wouldn't I control my losses better? Looking to play five tables doesn't address the issue of how we "lose too much" in one session. In those five tables you can hit the switch or worst-case scenario at each table. Then what? How does limiting your play to five tables in craps or two shoes in baccarat or a full buy-in in blackjack or roulette guarantee that you will keep down the big fluctuations?

It doesn't really. The key to controlling your losses and signaling when to depart is the worst-case scenario. And every system has one. If it didn't then we would own the casinos. When we don't encounter a worst-case scenario our buy-in is usually intact and most times we are ahead. When we do encounter a worst-case scenario then our losses tend to mount and we may be forced to stop playing.

Suddenly, my gambling came into a new light. The original departure rules seemed antiquated. As long as I evaluated my play with each worst-case scenario, I could stay well within the desired three outcomes. I began analyzing the worst-case scenarios for each of the Benson systems and slowly developed new departure rules and playing strategies around these worst-case scenarios. But here's the best part: I found myself gambling longer and if the worst-case scenario appeared, I continued playing as long as I knew that I was within the three desired outcomes.

I now refer to these new departure rules as "recession proofing" my play. They truly eliminate the fluctuations and give me the consistent wins I demand from my play. We are still finalizing these new departure rules for each system. But we plan to incorporate them into all of our games. There's still work left to be done but we are close. Until next time.

WINNING AND LOSING

Winning and losing is no secret. In fact, the four ingredients needed to win have been clearly established and agreed upon by successful gamblers. They are: 1) Bankroll 2) Knowledge 3) Money Management 4) Discipline. It is possible to win with three of the above ingredients as long as it includes discipline. Without discipline you will always lose in the long run. In addition, the winning and losing scenarios have been clearly established for all gamblers. That is, all gamblers are faced with the same four scenarios whenever they play. That is, they can: 1) Win a little. 2) Win a lot. 3) Lose a little. 4) Lose a lot.

Successful gamblers know they must eliminate number four (losing a lot). This occurs because of a lack of discipline. Numbers one and two do not require much discipline. You just need to follow your win goals. Number three requires substantial discipline because you are close to winning and it's difficult to shut down your play with a small loss.

The player who is always falling prey to number four is not paying attention to loss limits, win goals and departure rules. Compulsive gamblers make number four a constant part of their play. However, successful gamblers avoid number four like the plague because they have been through it many times and know how it hurts. That's why the successful gambler sets his loss limits so any one loss won't wipe him out.

With these important ingredients in mind, here are some personal tips that will keep you in the successful mode:

1. Set a reasonable bankroll. Don't use scared money or money that you can't afford to lose. Even if you don't lose, it will affect your play.
2. Learn everything possible about the game you play. I can actually deal craps, blackjack and baccarat as well as the dealer.
3. Play the games that have the least house advantage. Make the bets with the least house vig but know the appropriate bets required for hedging, although they may have a higher house vig.
4. Set logical and appropriate win goals and loss limits. Successful gamblers consider these two to be the most important.
5. You must have the discipline to walk away on days when everything is going against you.

I also believe in being an expert in more than one game and playing them against each other. I've had stretches where I've played nothing but baccarat for an entire month because it was working for me.

Finally, follow the patience and perseverance of the successful gambler. If you are going to play craps, for example, conquer it, perfect it. Follow all the discipline techniques and attack the game with confidence. This is how the successful gambler does it. This allows you to win more often. It also creates higher monetary wins when winning and lower monetary losses when losing. This is the path the successful gambler takes and you should too. Have a plan.

INTERNET GAMBLING - SHOULD IT BE LEAGAL IN THE USA?

I've been following closely for months the cheating by Internet casinos. "60 Minutes" had a lead story not too long ago about how online poker cheaters were able to see the hands of other players. And two weeks before writing this Publisher's Letter there was an article in the Las Vegas Review-Journal (R-J) sub-headlined "Internet sites lack regulation, do little to police cheating." Then, the next day, in a two-part article in the R-J written by a columnist for the Washington Post, the headlines were "online wagering regulation murky" and "critics: "laws ridiculous, impossible to enforce."

An earlier article, in the Las Vegas Sun, commented that the new Obama administration appears friendlier toward the prospect of legalizing Internet gambling.

The American Gambling Association, the online gambling industry's premier trade and lobbying group, according to a LV Sun article, has "to work through at least three viewpoints. Some casino companies support federal regulation of Internet gambling. Other members want the authority to rest with the states," while "still others, fearing competition from land-based casinos with online outlets, oppose regulation that would open the door to new rivals. The group's largest members, MGM, Mirage, Harrah's Entertainment and International Gaming Technology -- which have been or are involved in Internet gambling ventures in countries where it's legal -- support legalization."

Democratic Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear, who is leading a state effort to block online bets, said the Internet gambling industry is "an underworld wrought with scams and schemes." But, Executive Director John Pappas of the Poker Players Alliance, a Washington lobbying group claiming just under one million members, said: "Congress shouldn't try to make criminals out of people who have taken the game [poker] from the kitchen table to the computer table."

So, what's the long-run verdict going to be? I certainly don't know, but as I have been saying for some time now, after the new administration takes over, I believe the ban against Americans playing on the Internet will be overturned. How long this will take, and with what restrictions, no one can know at this time. There are other things going on now in the U.S. and the rest of the world that are much more critical and require immediate attention.

Eventually, I believe, Internet gambling will be legal for U.S. residents -- but with some form of regulation. Democratic Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts has introduced a bill to regulate online gambling sites by exempting licensed operators from the federal ban and creating protections against underage gambling, compulsive gambling, money laundering and fraud.

All these online gambling cheating and even horror stories make the case for legalizing, regulating and taxing the revenues of the owners and/or operators of the sites.

We'll see. I'll keep you posted as new developments occur.

CASINO COMPS DURING THE RECESSION

Many clients have asked me how this recession has affected casino comps. The answer is tricky because not all casino comps have been affected the same way. Also, not all casinos share the same philosophy about comping in the first place. Let me explain.

Las Vegas and Atlantic City, the two largest gambling destinations, have been hit the hardest by the recession. These two cities rely on people from outside the immediate area to come to town and stay overnight. During bad times, fewer people travel to resort areas. Casinos that draw from the nearby population, that is, casinos on Indian reservations, center city casinos and riverboat casinos, are experiencing a smaller downturn. They do not have to attract players from out of state, let's say, to survive.

To combat this problem, some casinos in both Las Vegas and Atlantic City will increase all their comps to attract more people. But some casinos will increase their comps only on slot machines. They feel the table game players expect less comps than slot players. It is easier and more effective to advertise greater slot comps. Certain casinos in Atlantic City gave away as much as 5X slot dollars during October and November. That is, if you earn $100 in one day, they will give you $500.

This appears great on the surface, but the casinos don't give something away without getting something back. If you play a $1 machine it may be set to a 96% return. Let's say for the next 30 days you get 5X slot dollars. All the casino has to do is lower the return to 95%. This makes up for the increased slot dollars and you'll never know it.

Some casinos take a totally different approach during bad times. They will tighten their belts and reduce the comps, no matter what the game. This is easily achieved by lowering the theoretical win on table games, which in turn lowers the amount of the comp.

Some casinos, like those in the Caribbean islands, rely more on seasons to succeed. The Bahamas, Puerto Rico and others are completely booked from November to April. During this period even the best players are comped less because casinos will be filed with paying people no matter what. In other words, the demand during this period is so great a recession doesn't matter.

However, April through November, especially the summer months, the comps are more liberal in the Caribbean. This is because the demand is not there. During this time Caribbean casinos run package trips, including airfare, and you don't even have to gamble. This is because they make enough money during their peak period without much comping to carry the off-peak period with liberal comping.

Keep track of the different comps. Most casinos advertise when they increase slot dollars, but you may not know about other promotions or giveaways during slow economic times unless you ask. If you need to, go to a casino host, or customer service and the marketing department for information about special promotions. They want your business, especially during tough times. Make them stretch to get it.

NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTIONS

Let's start the New Year right with 10 gambling resolutions for 2009. I know you've heard these resolutions before but they demand repeating. After all, how many coaches stress "the basics" is order to become champions?

Well, the following 10 resolutions are the basics of your gambling success. I repeat them every time I play and I know all good gamblers follow them. So very slowly now, repeat the following loud and clear.

Resolution #1: I am addicted to winning, not gambling.

Resolution #2: The key to winning is being a good loser.

Resolution #3: It's the departure rules!

Resolution #4: It's the money management!

Resolution #5: Never lose big. That is, completely eliminate this scenario from your play.

Resolution #6: Only allow losing small, winning small and winning big to be part of your three gambling outcomes.

Resolution #7: Know your strategy perfectly.

Resolution #8: Play at the right comfort zone. That is, at a unit size you can afford to lose.

Resolution #9: Play at a unit size that allows you to capture a win-goal worthy of your time. That is, play at a unit size that allows you to capture an acceptable profit and doesn't force you to overplay.

Resolution #10: Always remember, you don't win more by playing more. You win more by increasing your unit size and playing within your money management and departure rules.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

RECESSION PROOF

The dictionary defines a recession as an economic setback in commercial and industrial activity. The question that concerns the Benson client is whether a recession affects the world of gambling. As you would expect, the answer is yes, but even more interesting, the answer is also no.

The answer is yes because a recession affects the supply side of the gambling business. That is, the hotel and casino. As prices rise in every area for the casino, the overhead increases. In order to attract more business the casinos must give away more comps and bonuses, which also increases their overhead.

But the answer is also no because the demand side of the gambling business, which is the people who gamble, is unaffected and is practically recession proof. The gambler, unlike the casino, has no major overhead. The gambler has no rent, employees, food and services costs, insurance, loan payments and all other aspects of business overhead. His expenses are his bankroll, which remains the same in and out of a recession, and increased gas prices which are minimal compared to the increased overhead of any other business.

Of course, a compulsive or bad gambler can be affected by the recession. If he loses his job or business, he is forced to stop gambling. (He’s probably better off.) Meanwhile, the gambler who loses but is still secure in his job or business continues to gamble as though everything is normal. No matter how high gas prices go, this will not keep him away. The increased gas prices are probably less than the cost of one bet.

That only leaves one type of gambler: the consistent winner. This type of gambler is least affected by the recession. That is, the pro, semi-pro or the person who is just a consistent winner at the end of every year. Many Benson clients fall into this category.

The consistent winner never had to worry about losing his investment or bankroll during a recession. In fact, his profits are increasing all the time. This is unlike the losing gambler who loses his investment almost every time he plays. Truth is, the winning gambler has the best of all worlds. He has no overhead, he’s always gaining principal and his comps keep escalating.

So, the Benson gamblers are on the recession-proof side of the table as long as they follow the systems and departure rules. I know many Benson clients who are consistent winners through the implementation of our many winning systems. Even when the recession is over, it hardly matters to these winners because it didn’t affect them in the first place. My advice to everyone during this recession is sharpen your game, learn more, and follow the rules carefully, especially the departure rules.

Have a plan.